As these numbers increase, the epidemic fades

Preventive measures slowed 1918 flu spread

moncler donna When the Spanish flu reached the United moncler outlet trebaseleghe States in the summer of 1918, it seemed outlet moncler to confine itself to military camps. But when it arrived in moncler outlet online shop Philadelphia in September, it struck with a piumini moncler uomo vengeance. moncler donna

moncler outlet By the time officials there grasped the threat of the virus, it was too late. The disease was rampaging through the population, partly because the city had allowed moncler uomo large public gatherings, including a citywide parade in support of a World moncler saldi War I loan drive, to go on as planned. In four months, more than 12,000 Philadelphians died, an excess death rate of 719 people for every 100,000 inhabitants. moncler outlet

piumini moncler uomo The story was quite different in St. Louis. Two weeks before Philadelphia officials began to react, doctors in St. Louis persuaded the city to require that influenza cases be registered with the health department. And two days after the first civilian cases, police officers helped the department enforce a shutdown of schools, churches and other gathering places. Infected people were quarantined in their homes. piumini moncler uomo

piumini moncler saldi Excess deaths in St. Louis were 347 per 100,000 people, less than half the rate in Philadelphia. Early action appeared to have saved thousands of lives. piumini moncler saldi

moncler saldi Scientists are still studying the 1918 pandemic, moncler saldi the deadliest of the 20th century, looking for lessons for moncler outlet online uomo future outbreaks including the possibility that H5N1, the avian influenza virus, could mutate into a form spread easily from human to human. This month, researchers published two new studies in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences comparing public health responses in moncleroutlet-i cities such as St. Louis and Philadelphia. moncler saldi

moncler bambino saldi Using mathematical models, they reported that such large differences in death rates could be explained by the ways the cities carried out prevention measures, especially in their timing. Cities that instituted quarantine, school closings, bans on public gatherings moncler saldi uomo and other such procedures early in the epidemic had peak death rates 30 percent to 50 percent lower than those that did not. moncler bambino saldi

moncler outlet online shop “It had been received wisdom that these interventions didn’t work,” said Dr. moncler outlet online shop

moncler saldi outlet “That we were able to go back and ask the right questions,” Hatchett said, “is a function of a lot of modeling work that we did previously.” moncler saldi outlet

moncler outlet online uomo Hatchett, who is a researcher at the National Institutes of Health, said the findings might hold lessons for the 21st century. “When multiple interventions were introduced early, they were very effective in 1918,” he said, “and that certainly offers hope that they would be similarly useful in an epidemic today if we didn’t have an effective vaccine.” moncler outlet online uomo

moncler outlet trebaseleghe A two week difference in response times, according piumini moncler saldi to the researchers, is long enough for the number of people infected in an influenza epidemic to double three to five times. moncler outlet trebaseleghe

moncler bambino outlet Dr. Martin Cetron, director for global migration and quarantine at the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, found reason for optimism in the study results. moncler bambino outlet

outlet moncler “The thing I find encouraging about the Hatchett paper,” he said, “is that moncler bambino saldi when you look back to 1918, you find that those who used nonpharmaceutical measures effectively were able to mitigate the impact of piumini moncler the severe pandemics, and this is consistent with some moncler bambino outlet of the 21st century simulation models.” outlet moncler

moncler outlet serravalle The second study, moncler donna in the same issue of The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggests that in one sense preventive measures can be too effective. In an influenza epidemic, a certain number of people survive the illness and are immune to reinfection. As these numbers increase, the epidemic fades. moncler outlet serravalle

piumini moncler But moncler saldi outlet an effective prevention program without a vaccine can leave enough people uninfected and still susceptible to the virus to start the epidemic again moncler outlet as soon as the controls are lifted. This is what happened in St. Louis. On piumini moncler outlet Nov. 14, 1918 in high spirits three days after the armistice that ended the war, and with influenza cases declining the city reopened schools and businesses. Two weeks later, the second wave of the epidemic struck, this time with children making up 30 percent to 40 percent of the infections. Controls were immediately reinstituted. piumini moncler

piumini moncler outlet The study examined the course of the epidemic in 23 cities: San Francisco, St. Louis, Milwaukee and Kansas City, Mo., piumini moncler scontatissimi had the most effective prevention programs, and time was of the essence. If moncler outlet serravalle restrictions were introduced too late or lifted too early, success rates declined substantially piumini moncler outlet.