By incorporating both man made and natural changes

How hot could the Earth get

canada goose outlet new york city It has been getting a little warm lately. In November 2015, Brits experienced the hottest November days ever recorded in the UK. That was shortly followed by news from the World Meteorological canada goose uk outlet Organization that 2015 is likely to be the hottest year since records began. canada goose outlet new york city

canada goose outlet store uk Global temperatures are now set to reach 1 above pre industrial levels. That is halfway to the politically agreed upper limit of 2 which was set by world leaders canada goose clearance sale in 2009. canada goose outlet store uk

For now at least, it seems the world temperature is going canada goose coats to go up and up. So how hot could the Earth really get? Is there any limit to the amount of warming humans could eventually cause?

View image of Earth ecosystems Canada Goose online will change with the climate (Credit: Ron Niebrugge/Alamy Stock Photo)

Climate change is not a new experience for Earth. The planet has gone through countless temperature fluctuations over its 4.6 billion year history, from frozen snowball to blazing tropical heat.

canada goose outlet uk sale Without the greenhouse effect, the Earth would have an average temperature of 18 canada goose outlet canada goose outlet uk sale

canada goose outlet online But despite all these changes, Earth always swings back into roughly the same temperature buy canada goose jacket range. That is because it has mechanisms in place to control its own temperature. canada goose outlet online

canada goose outlet sale A key one is the canada goose factory sale greenhouse effect. Greenhouse gases in the air, mainly carbon dioxide, methane and water canadian goose jacket vapour, trap radiation from the Sun and act like a thermal blanket around the planet. canada goose outlet sale

canada goose Canada Goose Outlet outlet online uk Without the greenhouse effect, the Earth would have an average temperature of 18 and be covered in ice. Life as we know it would not be able to survive. The greenhouse effect Canada Goose Online is clearly a good thing, but like all good things, it is possible to have too much. canada goose outlet online uk

View image of Our society runs on energy (Credit: Ian McKinnell/Alamy Stock Photo)

canada goose buy canada goose jacket cheap outlet toronto factory Humans have only been here for a relatively short time, yet we have managed to become the most significant canada goose coats on sale driver of climate change on the planet. By burning fossil fuels and cutting down trees, we canada goose uk black friday are releasing more and more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and that has caused temperatures to rise. canada goose outlet toronto factory

By Canada Goose Coats On Sale the end of this century the world will be at least 4 warmer than it was before the Industrial Revolution

Between 2000 and 2010, our rates of emissions more than quadrupled from the previous decade, and so far there is little sign of this upwards trend reversing. The question is, how canada goose black friday sale much will all these extra greenhouse gases heat the planet over the coming decades and centuries?

canada goose outlet nyc To predict the state of the planet in the future, scientists build computer models that simulate what will happen to the Earth climate. These models are vastly complicated, but they ultimately rely on basic physics such as how air and water behave. By incorporating both man made and natural changes, the models can uk canada goose estimate how the climate will change when a given amount of greenhouse gases is emitted. canada goose outlet nyc

These predictions are compiled into reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), most recently in 2013 2014. They suggest that, if our greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase as they have been over the last 50 years, then by the end of this century the world Canada Goose Jackets will be at least 4 warmer than it was before the Industrial Revolution.

canada goose outlet store What more, the warming will not stop at the end of this century. canada goose outlet store

View image of For now, the world is set to keep warming (Credit: Image Source Salsa/Alamy Stock Photo)

canada goose jacket outlet The further forward we go in time, the harder it is to predict what will happen. canada goose jacket outlet

Models currently suggest that we will reach 7 above Canada Goose Parka pre industrial levels by 2200, but that temperatures will then stabilise, provided canada goose we have stopped emitting greenhouse gases.

Climate models can only make predictions based on what we know

canada goose outlet canada However, we cannot be certain of this, because the Earth climate is a complex system. As the climate warms, several processes operate that can cause even more warming. canada goose outlet canada

canada goose black friday sale For instance, snow and cheap Canada Goose ice melt away in a warmer world, exposing dark ground that absorbs the Sun heat rather than reflecting it. Similarly, more water vapour evaporates from the surface, and since water vapour is a greenhouse gas this canada goose clearance traps even more heat. canada goose black friday sale

canada goose outlet reviews The oceans actually slow climate change, because carbon dioxide dissolves into them from the air. But warmer oceans can hold less carbon dioxide, leaving ever more in the atmosphere. canada goose outlet reviews

canada goose outlet shop These feedbacks are relatively well understood, but others are harder to unravel: for example, how changing cloud cover will affect the climate, or when methane locked up in permafrost at the poles will be released. Climate models can only make predictions based on what we know, so as temperatures rise further beyond anything humans have experienced, their predictions become less reliable. canada goose outlet shop

goose outlet canada So rather than trying to predict what the climate will do from first principles, we can take another approach: we can look at what has happened in the past. goose outlet canada

canada goose outlet View image of How much of the world will look like this? (Credit: Susan E. Degginger/Alamy Stock Photo) canada goose outlet

canada goose factory outlet About 55 million years ago, the Earth experienced one of the fastest temperature rises in its history canada goose factory outlet.